[GRLUG] FiOS -- NOT

[Bob Kline]

On Mon, Mar 29, 2010 at 2:24 PM, nivardus <nivardus at gmail.com> wrote:

> Higher speeds benefit a lot more than gaming. Streaming video, high
> resolution images, 3D content and rich media as a whole is infinitely
> hungry for increased bandwidth. The reason why there is no web-wide
> demand for 1000 Mbps connections is because consumers don't have them.
> Development and distribution of richer web applications are held back
> by broadband speed and penetration and vice versa.
>
> Google, a web-service-based company, has everything to gain from a
> more capable medium; whereas ISPs' business models are the result of
> outdated telecom practices: aggressive construction of newer tech will
> only cut profits. Increased web-service company involvement in ISPs
> may be the future, as seen with past efforts such as AT&T Yahoo!
> internet. FiOS is something odd: a large telecom company taking a
> large risk, but outliers happen. I'm disappointed by such a service
> not being available in my area but I'm not blaming Verizon.
>
> "What would things be like if we were using ipv6 and ip addresses
> weren't at a premium, and if upload speeds were equal to download
> speeds?"
> -ben.demott at gmail.com
>
> What if everyone using the internet had the ability to share with
> others as much as others share with him or her? I think it is
> fundamentally important to the success of the net, it's what powers
> free software, Wikipedia, and the reason it is the large step in
> society's evolution we view it as today. ISPs offer a slanted
> subscriber-provider dichotomy, thinking of the internet as cable
> television: forbidding any type of hosting on residential connections.
> _______________________________________________
>

Overall, this is in keeping with my view
of broadband.  The data suggests it's
"build it and they will come."  I'll post some
items from business magazines showing
that, give or take the current economy,
growth in broaddband - users and capital
investment - is still robust and dynamic.
Broadband (by some definition) went from
a couple of percent access in year 2000
to almost 50% by the beginning of year
2007.

New technologies, like Uni-DSL, provides
speeds of up to 200 Mbps.  VDSL can
provide up to 52 Mbps at up to 2,600 feet,
more than enough to go from AT&T's or
Comcast's fiber termination point to many
household.

And of course there are orders of magnitude
of improving in many elements of computers
yet.  Hard drive capaicity, memory,  USB,
CPU performance, etc.

Suggesting that the bandwidth world has
peaked and then some smacks no little of
closing the patent office because everything
was already invented - about 1890, in the US.
It matters not what people do with the stuff.
Even wasting much of it.  The question is only
one of cost.  And those at the top tiers of
use and innovation will very likely keep coming
up with new things.  i.e., there's little evidence
today that development of any of the key
computer components has hit a wall.

Anyway,  rah-rah.  But I would bet that
capacities and speeds with continue to
increase, and costs will continue to come
down.  "Moore's law" is nothing more than
an extrapolation of the past, but it has
worked for decades.  If it starts to bite in,
then it might be ominous for computer
component development down the road.
But the fact that few can see where this
is all going now is nothing more than
Groucho Marx's comment: "predicting is
hard.  Especially the future."  If any of us
could really see where things are going
it would be a fabulous opportunity to get
very rich.

    -- Bob
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